1D3X Context

🔎 Main signals

USDA Makes Friendly Cut to Corn Stocks in WASDE, as Weather Threats Loom - AgWeb: Global soybean ending stocks tightened by 0.7 million metric tons to 124.2 million, about 1 million tons less than the trade expected. USDA ReportsWheatCornSoybeansU.S. Department of Agriculture []( Image 10: AgWeb-Logo crop Read Next Image 11: Cornfield by Lindsey Pound Crop Production StoneX’s First Survey Shows a Big Crop, But Supply Might Not Be the Big (agweb.com)

production risk shifts to South America. As such, price reaction in futures and basis is strongly influenced by weather and production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. South American crops will compete for export markets starting at the end of January. PB 1912-K Tennessee Soybean Production Handbook: Chapter 11 5 REFERENCES AND RESOURCES Barchart.com.: production risk shifts to South America. As such, price reaction in futures and basis is strongly influenced by weather and production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. South American crops will compete for export markets starting at the end of January. PB 1912-K Tennessee Soybean Production Handbook: Chapter 11 5 REFERENCES AND RESOURCES Barchart.com. (utcrops.com)

Will tomorrow’s USDA reports shock grain markets? Financial markets only add another layer of influence. Investors are split about inflation, fearing higher interest rates because the price metric followed most closely by the Federal Reserve continues to run above the central bank’s target of 2%, hitting an 18-month high in May. But consumer sentiment remains weak and signs of higher wages are scarce ahead of July 2 jobs data, which could help the Fed stay on hold.: Will tomorrow’s USDA reports shock grain markets? Financial markets only add another layer of influence. Investors are split about inflation, fearing higher interest rates because the price metric followed most closely by the Federal Reserve continues to run above the central bank’s target of 2%, hitting an 18-month high in May. But consumer sentiment remain (farmprogress.com)

Weekly Marketing Updates — Howlett Farms: Weather: U.S. corn and soybean crops started in solid condition, with USDA reporting corn 93% planted and 67% good/excellent, while soybeans were 87% planted and 66% good/excellent as of May 31 Exports: Corn export sales were at the low end of expectations, soybean export interest remains uncertain, and wheat demand remains soft [...] Weather: Corn and soybe (howlettfarms.com)

WASDE preview: What to expect from USDA Tuesday on corn, soybeans and wheat - Pro Farmer: But don’t write it off. It will be worth tuning in to see what tweaks to domestic and export demand are in store, as well as whether USDA makes any changes to its South American crop expectations with soybean harvest well under way in Brazil. [...] “Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the U (profarmer.com)

Soybean Futures Prices Today — Live CBOT ZS Chart & Cash Bids | AGSIST: Soybean futures today — live CBOT ZS quotes refreshed every 30 min in session. November new-crop, crush spread, corn/bean ratio, cash bids by ZIP. Provider: brave_search (agsist.com)

🌾 Grain logistics

🌽 Grains

🌱 Oilseeds and vegetable oils

🌍 1D3X | Weekly Commodity & Logistics Market

Global market highlights:

1. Global grains and oilseeds markets showed mixed price trends influenced by weather variability, geopolitical tensions, and export demand shifts.

2. Dry bulk freight rates remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations, supported by steady demand in key maritime corridors.

3. Ukrainian Black Sea grain export capacity declined by approximately one-third due to intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, impacting global grain flows.

4. Corn and soybean futures experienced volatility driven by weather conditions in major producing regions and export demand uncertainties, while wheat markets remained comparatively stable.

5. Regional logistics bottlenecks, especially in Europe and the Black Sea, increased shipping costs and delayed agricultural commodity deliveries.

Part I. Logistics & Freight:

1. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged near 1,200 points, reflecting steady demand for dry bulk carriers transporting grains and other commodities.

2. Major maritime corridors including the Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca operated without significant disruptions, maintaining smooth global trade flows.

3. Ukrainian Black Sea ports such as Odesa and Chornomorsk faced severe congestion and operational challenges due to ongoing Russian attacks, reducing grain export capacity by roughly one-third.

4. The Taman deep-water terminal in Russia, with an annual handling capacity of 5.5 million metric tons, was damaged by Ukrainian strikes, limiting Russia’s grain and sunflower oil exports and forcing cargoes to reroute or delay.

5. Damage to the EFKO sunflower oil export facility in Russia further constrained the country’s sunflower oil export capacity.

6. Alternative export routes through the Danube River and European rail networks gained importance but remain limited by capacity and higher costs.

7. Panama Canal container traffic increased notably, driven by a rise in container shipments, reflecting robust global trade activity and efficient logistics.

8. Inland transportation in Europe encountered disruptions from rail and road challenges, causing logistical bottlenecks and elevated costs for agricultural commodity movements.

Part II. Grains:

1. Corn futures closed mixed with slight declines amid favorable weather forecasts across major producing regions including the U.S. Corn Belt, supporting expectations of average or above-average yields.

2. U.S. corn crop conditions showed some deterioration due to recent heat stress but benefited from forecasted rainfall, stabilizing yield expectations.

3. Brazil’s corn output forecast for marketing year 2026-27 was revised slightly downward due to higher fertilizer costs and potential El Niño impacts delaying soybean harvest and subsequent corn planting.

4. Brazil’s corn exports in July declined 21.2% year-over-year, with total exports for the marketing year projected at 160.62 million bushels, reflecting tighter supply and logistical constraints.

5. Wheat futures remained relatively stable with limited price movement, supported by balanced global supply and demand and resilient European export demand amid geopolitical tensions.

6. European wheat markets showed resilience despite ongoing drought impacts in the Plains and harvest condition concerns.

Part III. Oilseeds & Vegetable Oils:

1. Global soybean ending stocks tightened by 0.7 million metric tons to 124.2 million, about 1 million tons less than trade expectations, reflecting stronger demand and supply adjustments.

2. South American soybean production risks shifted due to weather and production estimates in Brazil and Argentina, influencing futures and basis price reactions.

3. Russian sunflower oil exports could fall by up to 40% following drone attacks on port infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea region, including damage to the EFKO export terminal in Taman.

4. Ukrainian attacks on sunflower oil export facilities further reduced Black Sea region sunflower oil maritime shipments, now relying mainly on Danube ports.

5. Despite lower Black Sea sunflower oil exports, the global vegetable oil market balance remains largely unchanged due to alternative supply sources and adjustments.

6. Soybean futures showed modest volatility with slight losses amid technical selling and fund activity, while soybean oil prices edged higher.

Part IV. Regional focus:

1. Ukraine and Black Sea region: Ongoing Russian attacks on key grain and oilseed export infrastructure have reduced export capacity by about one-third, causing cargo diversions, port congestion, and longer inland supply chains that support freight rates.

2. Russia: Damage to the Taman deep-water terminal and EFKO sunflower oil export facility has constrained vegetable oil exports, forcing rerouting and delays.

3. United States: Corn and soybean crops started the season in solid condition with planting mostly complete; however, export sales have been at the low end of expectations, keeping demand questions active.

4. Brazil: Corn production forecast slightly reduced due to higher input costs and weather risks; exports declined notably in July, impacting global supply dynamics.

5. Europe: Inland logistics disruptions from rail and road challenges have increased costs and delayed agricultural commodity movements, while wheat markets remain supported by export demand despite drought concerns.

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