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1D3X Daily Market Report - June 22, 2026

12 items4 topics60 sources

1D3X Daily Market Report - June 22, 2026

🔎 Key signals

U.S. wheat export inspections increased last week, driven by strong demand from the Philippines early in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Ukraine's grain exports declined 12% in 2025/26 due to port disruptions and Russian attacks, despite rising production and stockpiles.

Global rapeseed trade sees slight growth with increased exports from Moldova and higher crush in Ukraine, while EU stocks tighten.

Soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast higher, supported by increased production in Argentina.

Ocean freight costs for Ukrainian wheat shipments to Egypt and Indonesia fell significantly in 2024 versus 2023, lowering total transport costs by 10-33%.

🌽 Grains

CBOT wheat futures showed mixed activity with recent settlements reflecting ongoing global supply concerns.

Algeria purchased 29.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins, likely sourced from the EU or Black Sea region for July-October shipment.

U.S. wheat exports are forecast down 135 million bushels year-over-year due to smaller domestic crops and competitive global supplies.

Corn futures recently gained, reaching the highest close since early June amid supportive weather and demand signals.

🌱 Oilseeds and vegetable oils

Global rapeseed crush is up, mainly driven by Ukraine, while EU rapeseed ending stocks are reduced, tightening supply.

Soybean prices softened after reaching two-week highs, pressured by weaker crude oil and soybean oil markets.

Ukraine remains a key global sunflower oil exporter, but export disruptions continue due to port blockades and attacks.

🚢 Logistics and freight

Black Sea grain freight rates remain stable but cargo volumes are insufficient to push rates higher, supported by firmer Western Mediterranean demand.

Ukrainian grain export logistics face challenges from Russian missile strikes on ports, forcing reliance on alternative routes with bottlenecks.

Transport costs for Ukrainian wheat to Egypt and Indonesia dropped notably in 2024, driven by lower rail and ocean freight expenses.

Over 20 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products were exported through sea ports recently, underscoring the ports' critical role despite ongoing conflict.

🌦 Crop weather and production

West-central Minnesota farmers report favorable weather conditions supporting corn, soybean, sugarbeet, and alfalfa crops.

Ukraine's wheat and corn production exceeded expectations despite wartime challenges, contributing to growing stockpiles.

⚖️ Trade policy and demand

Ukraine's grain export volumes are pressured by intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, complicating global supply chains.

Discussions continue on resuming Black Sea grain export corridors, but alternative export routes remain constrained by logistical bottlenecks.

Algeria's recent wheat tender reflects sustained demand for Black Sea and EU-origin grains in the Mediterranean region.

🌍 Regional notes

European Union faces tighter rapeseed stocks amid increased crush demand and export activity from neighboring Moldova.

Argentina's soybean production rise supports a larger global carryover, influencing international soybean stock forecasts.

Ukraine's export challenges persist with significant declines in wheat, barley, rye, corn, and flour shipments due to port disruptions.

Desk Snapshot

Sources

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Items

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Topics

4keyword clusters

Pulse

Logistics

10

Freight, ports and execution

Markets

10

Price tone, futures and basis

Trade

10

Demand, exports and tenders

Topic clusters

4 clusters

Logistics

9

Freight, ports and execution

Markets

5

Price tone, futures and basis

Trade

5

Demand, exports and tenders

Policy

1

Regulation, tariffs and macro context

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