1D3X Context

• Global rapeseed production forecast raised to nearly 100 million tonnes for 2026-27, driven by larger crops in Australia, Russia, Uruguay, and Kazakhstan.

• International sunflower and rapeseed oil prices declined slightly amid subdued import demand and expectations of ample supplies in the 2026-27 season.

• Ukraine’s wheat exports continue robustly through Romania’s Constanta port, though logistical challenges loom with rising corn exports competing for capacity.

• Rail shipments of Ukrainian grain to Danube river ports nearly tripled in August, offsetting a near 95% collapse in Odesa port deliveries due to ongoing conflict.

• Continued attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels have effectively halted grain shipments from the region, prompting buyers to seek alternative sources.

• U.S. soybean production forecast raised to 4.5 billion bushels for 2026-27 with increased export expectations, while Argentina projects record corn and soybean outputs.

• New biological technology (EXORT™) shows promise in boosting yields across major crops including corn and soybean, potentially impacting supply dynamics.

• Ukraine’s soybean market shifts towards higher domestic crushing amid smaller crops and export duties, supporting processed product exports like soybean meal.

• European rapeseed prices rise due to supply disruptions, higher Canadian costs, and export delays from Ukraine, while Ukrainian processors favor sunflower seeds for margins.

• Ukraine exported 196,400 tonnes of rapeseed and 68,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in early September, with oilseed prices remaining stable.

• Ukrainian grain export potential for 2026/27 could approach 52 million tonnes if logistics remain functional, up from 41.1 million tonnes last season.

• Wheat futures led a broad pullback on September 22 as harvest progress and favorable weather dampened bullish momentum across grains and oilseeds.

• Soybean futures edged lower after early gains, though prices remain near multi-year highs amid ongoing optimism for Chinese demand.

• Ukraine’s Grain Association calls for scrapping the 10% export duty on soy and rapeseed, citing systemic issues despite improved exemption procedures.

• Export tax on soy and rapeseed in Ukraine has generated significant revenue and supported domestic processing, which now accounts for over half of soy and rapeseed crops.

• Ukraine’s wheat export logistics face increasing competition from corn shipments at Constanta port, potentially slowing wheat flows starting October.

• Black Sea disruptions continue to threaten global food security given the region’s critical role in wheat, maize, and oilseed exports.

• US winter wheat plantings are behind average at 17% complete, adding some uncertainty to upcoming supply expectations.

• Brazil’s 2026/27 grain production projected at 366.6 million tonnes, with soybean and corn outputs rising moderately.

• Argentina forecasts record grain production at 157.9 million tonnes, driven by higher soybean and corn yields despite a decline in wheat output.

• Chicago wheat futures settled lower at $7.17 1/4 per bushel on September 22, reflecting profit-taking amid harvest progress.

• Corn futures closed down 6 1/4 cents at $5.36 3/4, while November soybeans fell 2 1/2 cents to $13.25 1/2 amid mixed market sentiment.

• Soybean meal prices gained $2.30 to $368.90, whereas soybean oil declined by 95 points to 67.37 cents per pound.

• Farmers in the U.S. Midwest continue forward contracting corn and soybeans ahead of harvest due to storage constraints and price rallies.

• Ukraine’s rail grain exports exceed 80% of total shipments, with 819,600 tonnes exported from September 1-17, including 581,700 tonnes of wheat and 203,200 tonnes of corn.

• Russia blames Ukraine for Black Sea grain export blockade, while both countries develop alternative routes amid declining maritime shipments.

• Ongoing missile and drone attacks on Odesa ports have reduced Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports by about 90%, intensifying global supply concerns.