1D3X Context

• Global vegetable oil trade growth in 2026/27 is expected to be driven by rapeseed and sunflower oil, with export growth strongest from Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and Australia, while the US and China lead import increases.

• Sunflower oil trade could expand by 15%, supported by larger crops in Ukraine and Russia after two seasons of below-average Black Sea yields.

• Russian grain exports have shifted from the Azov-Black Sea ports to Baltic Sea ports like Ust-Luga and Vysotsk, which shipped 172,000 tons combined in early September, a new development compared to last year.

• US corn exports are up 25% year-on-year through August 31, while December corn futures declined slightly to $5.30, reflecting mixed demand signals.

• Ukraine is open to including food trade routes in a potential agreement to halt strikes, which could stabilize Black Sea grain and oilseed exports and reduce global price volatility.

• US wheat export sales increased by 12 million bushels for 2026/27, with shipments last week exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA export goals despite total commitments down 31% from last year.

• Chicago and European wheat, corn, and soybean futures declined modestly last week amid profit taking and mixed weather signals.

• Competition for export logistics between Ukrainian wheat and upcoming corn shipments is expected to intensify in October, potentially slowing wheat exports through Romanian ports.

• Brazil and Argentina face planting season risks due to a forecasted record-strength El Nino, threatening South American soybean and corn crops critical for global supply.

• Rapeseed has become the most profitable crop for Russian farmers in 2026, with acreage expanding 6.3% as wheat plantings decline due to low prices and export constraints.

• Chinese demand for US soybeans remains strong ahead of upcoming US-China summit meetings, supporting soybean meal futures and crush margins.

• Ukraine exported 131,000 tons of sunflower oil in the first half of September despite logistical challenges, reaching about 62% of potential export capacity.

• Global sunflower oil supply is influenced by Black Sea crushing capacity and harvest outcomes, with South America and the EU providing secondary sources.

• EU soybean meal supply risks, including drought and Black Sea trade disruptions, are expected to increase demand for rapeseed and sunflower meal as substitution options remain limited.

• Russian grain exports have reoriented to Baltic Sea ports due to near shutdown of Azov-Black Sea basin ports, with applications for about 5 million tons of grain accumulating for Baltic export in August.

• Ukrainian grain exports continue to rely on a patchwork of river, rail, and road routes amid port pressures and ongoing Black Sea security risks.

• Rising freight costs and competition between corn and wheat for export logistics in Ukraine are expected to complicate shipments through Romanian ports starting October.

• NOAA forecasts a very strong El Nino event with over 90% probability, potentially the strongest since 1950, posing significant risks to South American soybean and corn planting seasons.

• US Midwest sees a wet weather pattern shifting northward, replenishing soil moisture in the upper Corn Belt but arriving too late to benefit drought-affected southern and western areas.

• Potential agreements to halt strikes on food trade routes in Ukraine could reduce export risks and stabilize global grain and oilseed supplies from the Black Sea region.

• USDA projects record global soybean production at 440 million tons for 2026/27, with trade at 191 million tons and consumption at 445 million tons, despite export disruptions.

• FEFAC highlights EU feed supply chain risks due to drought, Black Sea trade closures, and new regulatory costs under EUDR, potentially increasing costs by over €1 billion.

• Ukraine’s wheat exports may slow in October due to logistical competition with corn, with Romanian port capacity under pressure.

• Russia’s wheat exports could fall nearly threefold in September amid Black Sea military operations and export restrictions.

• Argentina’s soybean harvest outlook has been trimmed, while China’s August soybean imports rose, reflecting shifting supply-demand dynamics.

• US farmers face drought and geopolitical uncertainties impacting wheat export prospects and global food price risks.