1D3X Context

• US corn exports through July 2026 are 20% above last year, exceeding USDA forecasts, supporting prices near three-year highs amid expectations of lower US and EU production and firm demand.

• Ukraine’s grain export blockade has cut shipments by 75%, with the 2026/27 grain export forecast lowered by 12% to 38-40 million tonnes, pressuring global wheat and corn supplies.

• Black Sea attacks and logistical bottlenecks continue to disrupt Ukrainian exports, pushing flows toward Danube river ports and increasing freight costs.

• Soybean futures gained 6½ to 10 cents on Tuesday, supported by strong demand and cooperative export facilitation in Ukraine.

• Corn futures traded above $5.10/bushel, near three-year highs, supported by concerns over Black Sea export disruptions ahead of the peak export season starting in October.

• Wheat prices edged up modestly on Euronext and CBOT, buoyed by geopolitical tensions and reduced Ukrainian export volumes.

• Ukraine’s grain exports rose 55% year-on-year in the first month of the 2026/27 marketing year, driven by increased corn shipments despite overall export challenges.

• Brazil posted record corn exports in July 2026, with China accounting for 35% of sales, underpinning global corn availability outside the Black Sea region.

• Ukrainian farmers are shifting crop structure toward oilseeds, especially rapeseed, amid grain export constraints and working capital shortages.

• Agricultural cooperatives in Ukraine gained access to open exports of soybeans and rapeseed, enabling volume aggregation and improved market access.

• Soybean futures showed gains on US exchanges, supported by ongoing Chinese demand and South American supply dynamics.

• Palm oil prices were slightly down but remain elevated year-on-year, reflecting tight global vegetable oil supplies.

• Up to 70 ships queued off the Danube as bottlenecks slow Ukrainian grain exports, though grain transport volumes to Danube ports increased elevenfold in August versus July.

• Ukrainian grain export flows are shifting from Greater Odesa to Danube river terminals, while Russian exporters reroute Azov-origin grain by rail to Baltic ports.

• Systematic shelling of Black Sea port infrastructure continues to hamper shipments, forcing exporters to rely on alternative routes and increasing freight costs.

• Severe heat and dry conditions in France during critical corn reproductive stages have damaged the crop, while winter wheat and rapeseed avoided major damage due to earlier drydown.

• Ukraine’s Odesa region farmers report a record grain harvest despite ongoing conflict and logistical challenges.

• The Ukrainian government eased foreign exchange control rules for exporters of key agricultural commodities, extending payment deadlines to mitigate export disruptions.

• USDA forecasts Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat exports at 10.8 million tons, down 54% from previous estimates due to ongoing attacks and export blockades.

• China continues to push US soybean imports amid slower growth expectations for global demand, influencing trade flows and prices.

• Africa faces rising costs for grain imports due to disrupted Black Sea flows and higher global prices, increasing food security concerns.

• Brazil’s agribusiness remains a global powerhouse with record soybean and corn production and exports, helping offset supply tightness from Eastern Europe.

• EU seeks alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports as Black Sea attacks and low Danube water levels constrain traditional pathways.

• Ukraine’s Danube ports of Izmail and Reni have become critical export hubs, though capacity remains below pre-war peaks.