1D3X Context

• Wheat futures snapped a six-day rally with prices turning lower on CME Group markets amid faltering US peace efforts and mixed demand signals.

• Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by 12% due to ongoing Russian attacks disrupting Black Sea ports, triggering a surge in global wheat prices.

• Export demand for Ukrainian rapeseed remains strong, but domestic processors are shifting towards sunflower and soybeans, signaling potential changes in local oilseed demand.

• Euronext extended trading hours for milling wheat, rapeseed, and corn futures since April 2026 continue to enhance European benchmark liquidity and price discovery.

• Euronext soft wheat (EBM) futures remain the European benchmark with active contracts across March, May, September, November, and December expiries; prices showed some volatility following the wheat futures pullback on CME.

• US corn futures declined by nearly 4% from March highs, pressured by weather uncertainties and weaker demand outlooks.

• Ukraine’s corn export volumes remain under pressure due to logistical constraints, with export shipments down amid port disruptions and rail capacity losses.

• Soybean futures corrected lower into the recent long weekend despite a weekly gain in November contracts, reflecting cautious sentiment amid export sales fluctuations.

• Ukrainian rapeseed export demand stays elevated, but processors’ pivot to sunflower and soybeans may reduce domestic rapeseed consumption.

• Sunflower seed bids for high-oleic varieties are active in Eastern Europe, with offers reported for October-November delivery.

• Ukraine’s grain export blockade has cut shipments by approximately 75%, with only 45% of exports moving by rail and Danube ports each, and 10% by road; all alternative routes face capacity and operational challenges.

• Danube River shipments are hampered by historically low water levels, limiting export volumes.

• Railway capacity losses due to Russian strikes and tensions with neighboring countries constrain Ukraine’s export logistics.

• Global container shipping emissions intensity rose in Q2, but most vessel-size segments improved efficiency, reflecting ongoing sustainability efforts in agricultural freight.

• US crop weather remains mixed with ongoing concerns over corn and soybean conditions impacting new-crop outlooks.

• European crop conditions support Euronext futures liquidity but face localized weather variability.

• Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs on nearly $20 billion of US goods, potentially impacting cross-border agricultural supply chains.

• Ukraine’s grain export reductions and port disruptions elevate global wheat price volatility and tighten supply availability.

• China remains a prominent buyer of US soybeans despite recent export sales declines.

• Ukraine’s 2026/27 grain export forecast cut to 38-40 million tonnes from earlier 43 million tonnes amid Black Sea port disruptions.

• Significant regional price disparities persist within Ukraine due to export access and logistics costs.

• Eastern European markets show active bids for feed and milling wheat, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed with delivery windows spanning September to November.

• US markets reflect cautious sentiment on corn and soybean futures amid geopolitical and weather uncertainties.