1D3X Context

• South Korean importer secured 69,000 MT of U.S. corn in an overnight tender, supporting U.S. corn export demand.

• Black Sea port disruptions from ongoing Russian attacks continue to constrain Ukraine’s grain exports, reducing monthly shipping capacity from 6 million to 4 million metric tons.

• India is actively seeking substitutes for sunflower oil due to delayed Black Sea exports and weak domestic harvests, boosting imports of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils from Argentina and elsewhere.

• Soybean futures are testing critical technical resistance near the 200-week moving average amid weather concerns and export demand uncertainty.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed processing hit record levels in 2025, driven by higher export duties and domestic crushing expansion.

• CBOT wheat futures edged lower amid cautious trading ahead of U.S. export data and persistent Black Sea export risks.

• U.S. corn futures declined 9.5 cents to $4.49 per bushel on July 29, pressured by weather-related crop concerns and softer export demand.

• Soybeans fell 34 cents to $11.78 per bushel, reflecting dryness impacts on crop conditions and subdued export expectations.

• Chicago wheat futures slipped 1.75 cents to $6.60 3/4 per bushel, weighed down by Black Sea logistical disruptions and export uncertainties.

• Argentina reported a record 71.5 million ton corn harvest with 75% harvested, supporting South American export prospects.

• Brazil’s corn exports for July are forecasted at 129.9 million bushels, slightly below prior estimates but still above last year’s volumes.

• South Korean corn tender for U.S. origin highlights ongoing demand for U.S. supplies amid global trade shifts.

• Ukraine’s grain exports through Black Sea ports in early 2026/27 season exceeded last year’s July volumes, helped by earlier harvest timing, but recent port attacks threaten this momentum.

• Domestic corn and wheat prices in Ukraine have fallen amid port shutdowns, with corn at $200/ton and food wheat at $198/ton delivered Odessa.

• Sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea are delayed by up to 60 days, causing rising prices and forcing importers like India to diversify sourcing.

• India is increasing imports of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils as substitutes for constrained sunflower oil supplies.

• Weekly export prices for soybeans: Argentina $469/ton, Brazil $496/ton, Ukraine $435/ton, U.S. Gulf $499/ton.

• Rapeseed export prices remain firm: Australia $514/ton, Canada $541/ton, Ukraine $504/ton, EU Moselle $541/ton.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed processing reached a record 380,470 tons in 2025, supported by higher export duties incentivizing domestic crushing.

• Forward prices for sunflower raw material in Ukraine have dropped $150-200/ton due to export bottlenecks and crushing plant oversupply risk.

• Russian attacks on Black Sea ports have led to suspension of shipping services to Ukraine’s grain terminals, severely disrupting export flows.

• Ukraine’s grain exports have been partially rerouted via the Danube River, with increasing activity observed as alternative pathways.

• Three major Russian grain terminals restricted truck deliveries citing heightened shipping risks, further complicating Black Sea logistics.

• Ukraine is losing approximately $70 million daily in export revenue due to port shutdowns around Greater Odessa.

• Global grain freight costs and delivery times are becoming more volatile as Black Sea conflict shifts trade patterns and sourcing flexibility gains importance.

• Brazil faces warmer and wetter conditions forecasted over the next two weeks, potentially delaying the second corn crop harvest.

• Soybean crop conditions in the U.S. dropped 3 points to 63% good to excellent after recent heat and dryness, though development remains ahead of normal.

• Argentina’s record corn harvest progress at 75% harvested supports strong export potential despite some weather variability.

• India’s domestic sunflower crop weakened due to insufficient monsoon rains, contributing to import demand for alternative oils.

• India’s active search for sunflower oil substitutes is reshaping global vegetable oil trade flows, increasing demand for palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils from South America.

• Ukraine’s export potential remains capped by port access; Ukrainian Grain Association raised grain harvest forecast with potential exports up to 52 million tons if ports reopen.

• Higher export duties on Ukrainian rapeseed have shifted processing domestically, affecting export volumes and market dynamics.

• South Korea’s recent corn tender for U.S. origin underlines ongoing import demand amid global supply uncertainties.